The Fallacy of a Post-COVID World
I believe that most people are thinking of COVID-19 in the following light…
After over 60% of people become vaccinated for COVID in 2021, the world can return to normal.
Right?! That’s the plan! In the last part of 2021, the world can return to normal. No more lockdowns. No more masks. I can go back to the life I once adored.
Well… Maybe not.
The Fallacy We Want to Believe
I hear a lot of people asking some really good questions:
- When will it really be safe to travel again?
- What happens to social safety nets?
- Should economies really go back to where they were before?
They all have big implications, but all are based on the assumption that COVID will be eradicated. From what I believe we’re starting to see from news reports and viral logic, this virus isn’t going anywhere.
In fact, we’re probably in it for the long haul.
So here’s why a post-COVID world is probably an a priori fallacy.
1. Minks
Bats 🡒 Humans 🡒 Minks. All of this happened in under a year.
So take a minute to read about the minks. Read well, because we’re going to be hearing a lot more about this.
1 year. 3 species. What this says is that this virus can mutate to jump between species very rapidly. Even if humans are able to eradicate COVID-19 in humans, it does not mean that the virus can’t hop to another species and then come back. This might require a different antibody cocktail to fight it, and I don’t think the world is geared up for that challenge.
Now, we could start predicting what species will host COVID-related strains and how they might look (just like how we predict our yearly influenza vaccines), but that’s a whole different ball game because…
2. Humans
Look at the polls. Only 58% of Americans are currently willing to get a COVID-19 vaccine shot when it’s released.
Enough said.
3. Logistics & Our History Eliminating Viruses
Now, when we aren’t able to 1) get the vaccine developed in-time before it mutates and starts infecting others and 2) distribute the vaccine to everyone because it’s logistically like getting to the moon 195 (countries)times, we have another problem: history.
Only 2 viruses have ever been eliminated by a vaccine.
- Smallpox (300–500 million deaths worldwide)
- Rinderpest
Even if we get a solid vaccine and get enough people vaccinated, COVID isn’t just going to magically disappear. It’s probably going to be with us for a long time moving forward.
So… What’s the Point? Just Nihilism?
Expectations. That’s the point.
If everyone is expecting the world to magically return to what it was before COVID-19, and then it doesn’t, we’re all going to be really disappointed.
It’s time now that we start tapering our expectations and keep up our good public health measures:
- Wear a mask.
- Wash your hands (religiously) and carry hand sanitizer.
- Avoid contact with others (in person) if you are in an area with a lot of COVID-19 transmissions.
- Cough and sneeze into your mask (or elbow)
- Keep your immune system healthy by exercising and keeping track of your mental health.
Next time someone asks you, “What are you going to do after COVID-19 is done?”, taper your response. We live in a different world now; it might be time to start expecting it.
